UK politics. World events. Bureaucrat released.

Saturday, 8 May 2010

Predictions, predictions

The result itself, well... in the end, I was pretty close to the actual result.

My prediction:

A Hung Parliament. Conservative Party short of an overall majority by 20 seats.
CONSERVATIVES 306
LABOUR 226
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 86
GREENS 1
OTHERS 31.
Conservatives with the most votes and the most seats.

The result:

A Hung Parliament. Conservatives short of a majority by 19.
CONSERVATIVES 307
LABOUR 258
LIB DEMS 57
GREENS 1
OTHERS 28
Conservatives with most votes and most seats.

The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll was remarkably accurate, despite having estimated a very low total for the Lib Dems, and showed very little deviation from the final result.

What we have learned, though, is that the pollsters must look again at the impact that the debates have on opinion polls. It seems likely now that the Lib Dem bounce was entirely false, or almost entirely false. Were the polls just reflecting excitement and not intention to vote Lib Dem? Or did the Lib Dem support crash in response to a fatal pincer movement from Labour and the Conservatives whose "Vote Clegg, get...." warnings managed to pull voters back from the brink of voting Lib Dem. Whichever it is, and the two may amount to the same thing, both the pollsters and the Lib Dems need to work it out

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